Economist
Oliver’s Insights 2024-25 saw strong investment returns yet again – but is it sustainable?
10 July
Key points While recession fears, worries about US tariffs and war with Iran resulted in volatility, 2024-25 saw another financial year of strong returns helped by central bank rate cuts, economic conditions proving better than feared, and as...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Five charts on investing to keep in mind in uncertain times like now
26 June
Key points The US intervention in the war with Iran has substantially increased the risk of disruption to global oil supplies and a deeper impact on share markets. But predicting how this will all unfold is hard. The key is to stay focused on...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Here we go again! – the threat to economies and investment markets from the Israel and Iran war
19 June
Key points So far, the Israel/Iran war is limited, and various constraints suggest it may stay that way with Iran reportedly wanting to return to talks. It’s still early days though and so the risk of an escalation threatening oil supplies...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – The risk of a US public debt crisis – and implications for shares
12 June
Key points US tax cuts point to ongoing budget deficits around 7% of GDP, a rising trend in already very high public debt and a further rise in already record debt interest payments. While a full-blown US public debt crisis is unlikely, this...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – The RBA cuts again and becomes more dovish
22 May
Key points As widely expected, the RBA cut by 0.25% taking its cash rate to 3.85%. This is the second rate cut in this easing cycle. The RBA remains “cautious about the outlook”, but its overall commentary appears more dovish leaving the...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Trump’s policies & the equity risk premium – the good, the bad & the ugly
22 May
Key points Helped by President Trump’s backdown on tariffs, shares have The good news is that the last month highlights that Trump is still sensitive to share market falls and worries of recession. The bad news is that the tariff mayhem could...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Labor returned to government in Australia – key challenges and risks
8 May
Key points The return of Labor with an increased majority basically means more of the same in terms of key economic policies. The key challenges for the Government are to boost productivity and hence living standards, improve housing supply and...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Why investors need to be aware of the psychology of investing
1 May
Key points Investment markets are driven by more than just fundamentals. Investor psychology plays a huge role and helps explain why asset prices go through periodic booms and busts & why they can react in extreme ways to events. The key for...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Seven reasons Australia is likely to avoid recession from Trump’s shock
17 April
Key points President Trump’s trade war poses a threat to Australian economic growth particularly via the indirect impact of weaker global activity driving less demand for our exports and lower commodity prices. Australia is likely to avoid a...[Read More]
Investment markets and key developments – Weekly market update 8/04/2025
10 April
Global share markets plunged over the last week taking them well below their mid-March lows in response to Trump’s higher than expected tariffs, with China’s retaliation on Friday adding to worries about a full-blown trade war, all of which...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – The Trump Dump in shares – what does it mean for Australia & investors?
8 April
Key points Share markets have fallen further on US President Trump’s worse than expected tariff policies. Further weakness is likely but at some point Trump is likely to pivot towards focussing more on his market friendly policies and the Fed...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – The 2025-26 Federal Budget’s economic impact
27 March
AMP economists Dr Shane Oliver, Diana Mousina and My Bui explain what impact the 2025-26 Federal Budget could have on the Aussie economy and investment markets. Key points Many measures were pre-announced, but key new measures include tax cuts...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Share market falls – seven key things for investors to bear in mind
13 March
Key points: Share markets have fallen sharply in recent weeks as uncertainty around US President Trump’s policies have led to renewed concerns about the risk of recession at a time when share market valuations were stretched. It’s still too...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Australian home prices turning back up again
6 March
Key points CoreLogic data shows average home prices rose 0.3% in February, after a brief three-month downturn of just 0.4%. The upswing came in anticipation of, and then confirmation of, an RBA rate cut which boosted buyer confidence. Annual...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – The seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on
27 February
Key points So far shares have been relatively resilient, but uncertainties are mounting particularly around Trump’s policies. We remain upbeat on a 12-month view but expect a rougher more constrained ride this year for shares, with a 15% plus...[Read More]